<
doi:  10.12013/qxyjzyj2019-027
基于年际增量法的中国西部山区夏季降水统计预测研究

Study on the prediction of precipitation in the mountainous areas of western China using the year-to-year increment method
摘要点击 457  全文点击 103  投稿时间:2019-08-23  修订日期:2019-09-18
查看HTML全文  查看全文  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
基金:  国家自然科学基金资助项目(41675077;41605072;41505058);江苏省自然科学基金(BK20160768).
中文关键词:  降水,西部山区,预测,ENSO,热带高压指数
英文关键词:  precipitation  mountainous areas of western China  prediction  ENSO  subtropical high intensity
                 
作者中文名作者英文名单位
胡轶佳Hu Yijia国防科技大学 气象海洋学院
吴欣原Wu Xinyuan南京外国语学校
李荔珊Li Lishan中国人民解放军31010部队
孙 源Sun Yuan国防科技大学 气象海洋学院
哈 瑶Ha Yao国防科技大学 气象海洋学院
朱益民Zhu Yimin国防科技大学 气象海洋学院
引用:胡轶佳,吴欣原,李荔珊,孙 源,哈 瑶,朱益民.2019,基于年际增量法的中国西部山区夏季降水统计预测研究[J].气象与减灾研究,42(3):161-169
中文摘要:
      利用中国756个站点观测数据、Nino 3区海温指数和74项环流指数等资料,应用EOF分析和相关分析等方法,对中国西部山区夏季(6—8月)降水的时空分布特征及其与ENSO和大尺度环流的相关关系进行分析。结果表明,中国西部山区夏季降水与冬季(上年12月—2月)Nio 3区海温具有显著的正相关关系,且两者的相关关系与月份、海拔高度关系密切,并具有年代际变化特征。西部山区降水还与春季(3—5月)西太平洋副热带高压的强度具有显著的正相关关系。将西部山区夏季平均降水作为预测量,前期冬季Nio 3区海温和春季西太平洋副热带高压强度作为预测因子,分别对秦岭、巫山山区降水建立预测模型,并利用该预测模型对2009—2018年夏季降水进行独立样本回报检验,发现预测模型对秦岭、巫山山区的预测成功率分别为70%和80%,相对误差绝对值通常小于10%,预测效果良好。
Abstract:
      Based on the observation data from 756 stations in China, the Nino 3 SST index and the 74 atmospheric circulation index, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of summer precipitation in the mountainous areas of western China, and their correlation with ENSO and large scale atmospheric circulation are discussed using the EOF method and correlation analysis. The results show that the annual increments (AI) of summer precipitation in the western mountain area and the annual increment of SST in the Nio 3 area in winter present strong positive correlation, which is closely related to the month and altitude, and exhibit interdecadal variation characteristics. The precipitation in the western mountains also has a significant positive correlation with the intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high in spring. The prediction models of precipitation in Qinling mountains and Wushan mountains are established, respectively, in which the averaged summer precipitation in the western mountain area is taken as the predictand, and the SST in Nio 3 area in winter and the western Pacific subtropical high intensity in spring are taken as the predictors. The independent sample return test of summer precipitation from 2009 to 2018 is carried out using this prediction model. It is found that the success rate of the prediction model for Qinling and Wushan mountains is 70% and 80% , respectively, and the relative error is usually less than 10%. This result is very satisfactory.
主办单位:江西省气象学会 单位地址:南昌市高新开发区艾溪湖二路323号
联系电话: (0791)82713175传真:0791-82713175 邮编:330096 Email:qxyjzyj@163.com
本系统由北京勤云科技发展有限公司设计