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doi:  10.12013/qxyjzyj2017-028
基于Markov和GM模型的江西省近550年旱涝变化研究

Study on Drought and Flood Variation in Jiangxi Province over the past 550 Years Based on Markov and GM models
摘要点击 226  全文点击 190  投稿时间:2017-06-09  修订日期:2017-07-30
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基金:  江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(编号:GJJ150305);鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室开放基金(编号:PK2015003);江西省重大生态安全问题监控协同创新中心项目(编号:JXS-EW-00);江西省自然科学基金(编号:20161BAB213075);江西师范大学博士启动基金(编号:6902)
中文关键词:  旱涝变化,Markov模型,GM模型,江西省
英文关键词:  drought and flood variation  Markov model  Grey Model  Jiangxi province
           
作者中文名作者英文名单位
万智巍WAN Zhiwei江西师范大学地理与环境学院 鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室
蒋梅鑫JIANG Meixin江西师范大学地理与环境学院 鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室
洪祎君HONG Yijun中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室
贾玉连JIA Yulian江西师范大学地理与环境学院 鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室
引用:万智巍,蒋梅鑫,洪祎君,贾玉连.2017,基于Markov和GM模型的江西省近550年旱涝变化研究[J].气象与减灾研究,40(3):178-183
中文摘要:
      基于1467—2016年江西省九江、南昌、吉安、上饶和赣州5个代表站旱涝等级数据,利用Markov和GM 模型,研究了江西省近550a旱涝变化规律,并对未来旱涝发展趋势进行预测。结果表明:Markov和GM 模型可以较好地对江西省旱涝状况进行预测,其中Markov模型预测的总体正确率为80%;GM 模型预测值的均方根误差为0.284,平均误差率为5.18%。江西省5个代表站都属于涝多于旱的类型,在1级旱灾方面,南昌站频率最低,仅为3.8%,吉安站最高,达9.4%;在5级涝灾方面,九江站频率最高,达13.4%,南昌站最低,仅为7.5%;从3级正常年份的出现频率看,南昌站频率最高,达48.3%,吉安 站最低,为35.2%。Markov模型预测结果显示,2017—2021 年江西省5 个代表站3 级正常年份出现的概率最大,大部分为0.3—0.5;GM 模型预测结果显示,九江、上饶和赣州站将处于偏涝状态,而南昌和吉安站的旱涝等级为2.8—2.9,属于正常 偏旱状态。
Abstract:
      Based on drought and flood data of Jiujiang,Nanchang,Ji'an,Shangrao and Ganzhou five representative stations in Jiangxi province from 1467 to 2016, the law and future trend of drought and flood were discussed by using Markov and Grey Models.Results indicated that the drought and flood grade can be predicted efficiently in Jiangxi province based on Markov and GM Models.The accuracy rate of predictions of Markov model can reach 80%.The root mean square error and the average error percentage of predictions of GM model was 0.284 and 5.18%,respectively.In the first grade of drought,the lowest frequency was only 3.8% that occurred in Nanchang,while the highest was 9.4% that appeared in Ji'an.In the fifth grade of flood,the highest frequency was 13.4%that occurred in Jiujiang,while the lowest was only 7.5% that appeared in Nanchang.In the third grade of normal years,the highest frequency occurred in Nanchang can reach 48.3%,while the lowest was35.2% that appeared in Ji'an.The probability of drought and flood in five representative stations in Jiangxi province was predicted in the next five years based on Markov model,and the results showed that the probability of occurrence of third grade(normal years) was the largest,most of which can reach 0.3—0.5.Based on GM model,Jiujiang,Shangrao and Ganzhou were predicted in a state of flood in next five years,and the drought and flood levels of Nanchang and Ji'an will be 2.8 to 2.9 or so,in a normal state or some kind of drought.
主办单位:江西省气象学会 单位地址:南昌市高新开发区艾溪湖二路323号
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