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doi:  10.12013/qxyjzyj2017-029
1961—2015年江西省气温变化特征分析

Analysis on the Temperature Variation inJiangxi Province during 1961-2015
摘要点击 320  全文点击 227  投稿时间:2017-03-09  修订日期:2017-08-12
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基金:  中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(编号:2014102);中国适应气候变化项目二期(ACCCII);江西省重点研发计划项目(编号: 20161BBG70095);江西省气象局科研项目“ENSO冷暖时间对江西异常气候的响应研究”.
中文关键词:  气温,时间变化,空间分布,气候重现期
英文关键词:  temperature  temporalvariation  spatialdistribution  recurrenceinterval
              
作者中文名作者英文名单位
李柏贞Li Bozhen江西省生态气象中心
孔萍Kong Ping江西省生态气象中心
占明锦Zhan Mingjin江西省生态气象中心
章毅之Zhang Yizhi江西省生态气象中心
王怀清Wang Huaiqing江西省生态气象中心
引用:李柏贞,孔萍,占明锦,章毅之,王怀清.2017,1961—2015年江西省气温变化特征分析[J].气象与减灾研究,40(3):184-192
中文摘要:
      基于江西省85个气象站逐日气象观测资料,采用M-K非参数检验、MuDFiT多概率分布函数拟合等方法,研究了江西省1961—2015年气温时空变化特征和极端气温重现期。结果表明,近55a来江西省年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,累计升 温约0.94 ℃,冬季增温最明显,赣北和赣中地区增温幅度较大。年平均最高气温以20世纪80年代中期为分界点,之前呈显著下降趋势,降温率为0.8 ℃/(10a),之后显著上升,升温率为0.4 ℃/(10a),赣中和赣东北地区极端高温频次最高。年平均最低气温呈显著上升趋势,升温率为0.8 ℃/(10a),赣北极端低温频次最高。对于40 ℃以上高温重现期,上饶、抚州和吉安站为10a一遇,南昌、九江、宜春、景德镇、鹰潭、新余和萍乡站为30a一遇,赣州站则为50a一遇;对于-10 ℃以下低温重现期,景德镇和抚州站为50a一遇,南昌和萍乡站为100a一遇。
Abstract:
      Based on the daily meteorological data of 85 observation stations in Jiangxi province during 1961-2015, the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of temperature was analyzed systematically by using M-K nonparametric tests, and the recurrence interval of extreme temperature was calculated by using MuDFiT (Multi-Distribution Fitting Tool) software in this study. The results showed that the annual average temperature presented a significant upward trend in recent 55 years (about 0.94 ℃ cumulatively), with the significant warming occurred in winter, and the larger warming amplitude appeared in the northern and central part of Jiangxi province. The annual maximum temperature showed a negative trend(cooling rate is 0.8 ℃ per decade)before 1984,and a positive trend(heating rate is 0.4 ℃ per decade)after 1984, and the highest occurrence frequency regions of extreme maximum temperature concentrated in northern and northeastern Jiangxi. The annual minimum temperature showed a significant upward trend during 1961-2015 with a heating rate of 0.8 ℃ per decade. And the highest occurrence frequency region of extreme minimum temperature concentrated in northern Jiangxi. The recurrence interval of high temperature above 40 ℃ was once-in-a-decade in Shangrao,Fuzhou and Jian stations, once-in-30-year in Nanchang,Jiujiang,Yichun,Jingdezhen,Yintan,Xinyu and Pingxiang stations,and once-in-50-year in Ganzhou.The recurrence interval of low temperature below -10 ℃ was once-in-50-year in Jingdezhen and Fuzhou stations,and once-in-100-year in Nanchang and Pingxiang stations.
主办单位:江西省气象学会 单位地址:南昌市高新开发区艾溪湖二路323号
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