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doi:  10.12013/qxyjzyj2017-032
2014—2016年赣北地区汛期ECMWF模式24 h降水预报误差分析

Analysis of 24h Precipitation Forecast Error of the ECMWF Model During the Flood Season of Northern Jiangxi in 2014-2016
摘要点击 557  全文点击 240  投稿时间:2017-02-20  修订日期:2017-06-05
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基金:  江西省气象局重点科研项目“强对流天气的格点化预报方法研究”
中文关键词:  预报误差,降水,阈值,EOF分析
英文关键词:  forecast error  precipitation  threshold  EOF
  
作者中文名作者英文名单位
庄晓宵Zhuang Xiaoxiao修水县气象局
引用:庄晓宵.2017,2014—2016年赣北地区汛期ECMWF模式24 h降水预报误差分析[J].气象与减灾研究,40(3):208-215
中文摘要:
      基于逐日ECMWF模式24 h降水预报及实况降水资料,通过计算预报误差统计量、单站预报准确率,利用预报误差经验正交函数(EOF)分解和功率谱分析的方法,分析了赣北地区2014—2016年4—6月24 h降水预报误差的分布规律和时空变化特征。结果表明,赣北地区汛期ECMWF模式24 h降水预报效果总体较好,但存在逐年下降的趋势;九江及上饶两站设置误差阈值为15—19 mm,南昌和宜春两站设置误差阈值为22—25 mm时,预报准确率可达80%;预报误差分布主要划分为空间一致型、南北差异型、马鞍型和三段型;预报误差分布可能存在8 d或12—13 d的较长周期以及2—3 d或4—5 d的较短周期。
Abstract:
      Based on the daily 24 h precipitation forecast results of the ECMWF model and actual precipitation data from April to June 2014—2016, the distribution and spatial-temporal variation characteristics of precipitation forecast error during the flood season of northern Jiangxi in recent three years were discussed by using EOF decomposition and power spectrum analysis methods to analyze the error statistics and single station forecast accuracy,. The results indicated that the 24 h precipitation forecast of the ECMWF model was generally good during the flood season of northern Jiangxi in recent three years, but presented a trend of declining year by year. The forecast accuracy can reach 80% if the error threshold was set to 15—19 mm in Jiujiang and Shangrao stations, and 22—25 mm in Nanchang and Yichun stations. The spatial distribution of forecast error can be divided into four partitions: spatial consistency type, north-south difference type, saddle type and three-stage type. The spatial distribution of forecast error may have a longer cycle with 8 d or 12—13 d and a shorter cycle with 2—3 d or 4—5 d.
主办单位:江西省气象学会 单位地址:南昌市高新开发区艾溪湖二路323号
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