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doi:  10.12013/qxyjzyj2017-035
武汉地区梅雨期暴雨预报方法初探

Study on a Rainstorm Forecasting Method during Meiyu Period in Wuhan
摘要点击 169  全文点击 150  投稿时间:2017-04-08  修订日期:2017-06-20
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基金:  武汉市气象局科技基金(编号:2014Z03)
中文关键词:  梅雨期暴雨,气候特征,预报方程,效果检验
英文关键词:  Meiyu rainstorm  Climate characteristics  Forecast equation  Effect test
        
作者中文名作者英文名单位
徐迎春XU Yingchun武汉市气象台
刘立LIU Li武汉市东西湖职业技术学校
庞晶PANG Jing武汉市气象台
引用:徐迎春,刘立,庞晶.2017,武汉地区梅雨期暴雨预报方法初探[J].气象与减灾研究,40(3):231-235
中文摘要:
      使用地面降水观测资料和高空探测资料,运用线性倾向估计法和相关性分析法,分析了2000—2012年武汉地区梅雨期(6—7月)暴雨的气候特征,并建立了暴雨天气预报方程。结果表明,6—7月武汉地区各旬暴雨日数呈先升后降趋势,其中最大值出现在6月下旬;集中期为6月下旬—7月中旬,占梅雨期总暴雨日数的61%;暴雨局地性强,雨强呈上升趋势。筛选出武汉站强天气威胁指数、百色站850 hPa露点温度和怀化站850 hPa风向、风速作为预报因子,建立武汉地区梅雨期暴雨预报方程,实际预报效果检验结果表明该方程的预报质量优于实际业务中常用的数值预报产品。
Abstract:
      Based on ground precipitation data and high meteorological detecting data in Wuhan during Meiyu period(June—July) from 2000 to 2012,the characteristics of Meiyu rainstorm in Wuhan were analyzed and the prediction equation was established using linear trend analysis and correlation analysis.Results indicated that the number of rainstorm days from June to July presented a trend that first increased and then decreased,with the maximum number of days appeared in late June.The rainstorm concentration period during Meiyu period was from late June to mid July,accounting for 61% of the total number of rainstorms days during the Meiyu period.The spatial distribution of rainstorm in Wuhan was not uniform,the precipitation intensity increased year by year.The natural weather threat index of Wuhan station,850 hPa dew point temperature at Baise station,and 850 hPa wind direction and speed at Huaihua station were selected as the independent variable factors of rainstorm equation,to establish the rainstorm forecasting equation.According to the test results,the forecast performance based on the equation was better than the conventional numerical forecast product.
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