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doi:  10.12013/qxyjzyj2017-039
基于SPEI的1961—2015年淮北地区干旱时空分布特征

Temporal and spatial distributions of drought during 1961-2016 in Huaibei area based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
摘要点击 172  全文点击 163  投稿时间:2017-10-12  修订日期:2017-11-25
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基金:  淮河流域气象开放研究基金项目(编号:HRM201302).
中文关键词:  干旱,SPEI,发生频率,时空分布,淮北地区
英文关键词:  drought  SPEI  frequency of occurrence  temporal and spatial distributions  Huaibei area
           
作者中文名作者英文名单位
杨绚Yang Xuan国家气象中心
安迪Yang Xuan徐州市气象局
吕翔Lyu Xiang徐州市气象局
徐思远Xu Siyuan徐州市气象局
引用:杨绚,安迪,吕翔,徐思远.2017,基于SPEI的1961—2015年淮北地区干旱时空分布特征[J].气象与减灾研究,40(4):257-264
中文摘要:
      基于标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),利用淮北地区108个气象站逐月气温、降水观测资料,采用线性趋势、M K突变检验等方法,从不同时间尺度(年、季)和干旱程度(轻旱、中旱、重旱和特旱)分析了淮北地区1961—2015年干旱频率和时空变化特征。结果表明:淮北地区1961—2015年总体呈干旱略加强趋势,其中1998—2001年干旱发生最频繁,干旱强度、极端干旱及中等干旱的频次均呈增加趋势。2011年淮北地区干旱程度发生了突变性增强;20世纪90年代起淮北地区夏季经历了先湿后干的转变,2013年是夏季转向干旱化的突变点。秋冬两季是淮北地区发生干旱频率较高的季节。秋季干旱分布广、旱情最为严重,淮北地区北部是秋季干旱的高发区;冬季发生中旱以上干旱的地区分布较广,主要位于淮北地区内的安徽片西部和江苏片中部。春夏季发生高频率干旱的区域相对较小。
Abstract:
      Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the monthly precipitation and temperature data of 108 meteorological stations during 1961-2015 in Huaibei area, temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the drought and its frequency were analyzed using Mann Kendall test and linear trend method according to different time scale (the annual and seasonal variation of drought) and drought intensity (slight, medium, heavy, extreme). The results indicated that the drought intensity presented positive trend in the past 55 years in Huaibei area, and the drought occurred most frequently during 1998-2001. The drought intensity and the frequency of extreme and medium drought also had increasing tendency. In 2011, a sudden enhancement in the drought intensity occurred. Since 1990s, the summer had undergone a transition from wet to dry in Huaibei, and the break point of the transition was in the year of 2013. In Huaibei area, the drought happened most frequently in autumn and winter. The drought was the most severe in autumn, which mainly distributed in the northern part of Huaibei. In winter, the areas above mid drought intensity mainly located in the western part of Anhui and the middle part of Jiangsu. The areas where high frequency droughts occurred in spring and summer were relatively small.
主办单位:江西省气象学会 单位地址:南昌市高新开发区艾溪湖二路323号
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