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doi:  10.12013/qxyjzyj2017-041
江西省永修地区盛夏气温和汛期降水变化特征及其预测模型

The Variation Characteristics and Forecast of Temperature in Midsummer and Precipitation during Flood Period in Yongxiu of Jiangxi
摘要点击 188  全文点击 165  投稿时间:2017-05-22  修订日期:2017-08-08
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基金:  公益性行业(气象)科研专项(编号:GYHY201506002);灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(编号:2016LASW N11).
中文关键词:  气温,降水,变化趋势,影响因子,预测模型
英文关键词:  temperature  precipitation  variation trend  influence factor  predictive model
           
作者中文名作者英文名单位
邹海东Zou Haidong松桃苗县气象局
冯波Feng Bo永修县气象局
盛勇Sheng Yong永修县气象局
丁君Ding Jun永修县气象局
引用:邹海东,冯波,盛勇,丁君.2017,江西省永修地区盛夏气温和汛期降水变化特征及其预测模型[J].气象与减灾研究,40(4):276-281
中文摘要:
      利用逐日气温和降水资料,对江西省永修地区1961—2015年盛夏(7—8月)气温和汛期(4—6月)降水的变化规律进行分析。结果表明,永修地区盛夏气温和汛期降水均存在25—30 a的变化周期,但在全球变暖的大背景下,两者自1961年以后均未表现出明显的长期变化趋势。通过相关性分析从大气环流指数和外强迫指数中筛选影响永修地区降水和气温的显著相关因子,并采用逐步回归法构建永修地区盛夏气温预测模型和汛期降水预测模型。模拟和预测试验结果表明,气温、降水预测模型不仅能较好地模拟出1961—2010年永修地区盛夏气温和汛期降水的变化,还能很好地分别预报出2011—2015年永修地区盛夏气温和汛期降水。
Abstract:
      Based on the 1961-2015 daily temperature and precipitation data in Yongxiu, the variation characteristics of the temperature from July to August and the precipitation from April to June were analyzed. The results showed that the variation cycle of temperature in midsummer and precipitation during flood period was 25-30 a, while none of them had presented obvious long time trends since 1961. Significant correlation factors affecting precipitation and temperature in Yongxiu region were selected from atmospheric circulation index and external forcing index by correlation analysis. Stepwise regression method was used to build a midsummer temperature forecast model and a flood season prediction forecast model. The models not only successfully simulated the variations of temperature and precipitation during 1961-2010, but also forecasted the temperature and precipitation from 2011 to 2015.
主办单位:江西省气象学会 单位地址:南昌市高新开发区艾溪湖二路323号
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