doi:  10.12013/qxyjzyj2017-045

Verification of the precipitation prediction ability for the EC thin model and its application in Anqing area
摘要点击 227  全文点击 149  投稿时间:2017-04-28  修订日期:2017-09-15
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基金:  2013年安徽省气象局预报员专项“多模式降水产品针对安庆的预报能力检验”.
中文关键词:  天气预报,质量检验,降水,ECMWF模式
英文关键词:  weather forecast  verification  precipitation  ECMWF model
吴胜平Wu Shengping安庆市气象台
黄洋Huang Yang安庆市气象台
张丽Zhang Li安庆市气象台
      利用安庆市逐日降水实况资料,针对2011—2016年ECMWF细网格降水预报产品对安庆地区的12 h、24 h分辨率晴雨和降水分级预报质量进行检验,基于检验结果对此降水预报产品进行解释应用。结果表明,ECMWF细网格数值降水预报在安庆地区晴雨预报正确率无明显区域差异,夏季晴雨预报正确率明显低于其他各季节,对夜间的预报能力明显优于白天。TS评分中小雨最高,中雨次之,大雨及以上量级较低且无明显规律。若将冬、春两季02 mm以下、夏季10 mm以下和秋季08 mm以下的降水预报进行消空处理,则晴雨预报正确率会有所提升,且小雨预报的TS评分达最佳;若将≥40 mm的降水预报修正为暴雨,则暴雨预报TS评分提高接近1倍,且大雨和暴雨的预报偏差更接近1。
      The EC fine grid precipitation information from July 1, 2011 to June 30, 2016 was corrected by the nine National Automatic Weather Stations in Anqing by using Lagrange interpolation method, and then it was tested by time resolution, forecast aging, seasons and stations according to the “medium and short term weather forecast quality inspection method” issued by China Meteorological Administration .The following conclusions were drawn: There was no significant difference in accuracy of clear rain prediction in Anqing. The correct rate in summer was significantly lower than that in other seasons. The forecast performance of night was significantly better than that of daytime. The TS score of light rain occupied the first place, and that of the moderate rain came the second. If the forecast of precipitation less than 02 millimeter in winter and spring, 01 millimeter in summer and 08 millimeter in fall was eliminated, the weather forecast accuracy would be significantly improved, and light rain forecast would acquire the best TS score. If the forecast of precipitation greater than 40mm was brought to rainstorm forecast, the accuracy increased nearly doubled,and heavy rain and rainstorm forecast bias was closer to 1.
主办单位:江西省气象学会 单位地址:南昌市高新开发区艾溪湖二路323号
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