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doi:  10.12013/qxyjzyj2019-046
基于气象因子的赣南脐橙采摘期预测

Prediction of navel orange picking period based on meteorological factors
摘要点击 108  全文点击 95  投稿时间:2019-09-24  修订日期:2019-11-13
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基金:  江西省气象局面上科研项目“脐橙采摘期气象预测方法研究”.
中文关键词:  赣南脐橙,采摘期,气象因子,预测,模型
英文关键词:  Gannan navel orange  picking period  meteorological factor  prediction  model
        
作者中文名作者英文名单位
张韵启Zhang Yunqi赣州市气象局, 江西 赣州 341000
周逸瑾Zhou Yijin赣州市赣县区气象局, 江西 赣州 341100
谢远玉Xie Yuanyu赣州市气象局, 江西 赣州 341000
引用:张韵启,周逸瑾,谢远玉.2019,基于气象因子的赣南脐橙采摘期预测[J].气象与减灾研究,42(4):290-294
中文摘要:
      利用赣州南部龙南县2011—2017年和北部宁都县2008—2017年的脐橙生育期观测资料与气象资料,采用相关普查的方法筛选影响脐橙采摘的关键气象因子,利用逐步回归方法构建模型,对赣南脐橙采摘期进行预测。结果表明:积温、降水量、最低气温和日照是影响脐橙采摘期的主要气象因素,其中积温的影响最大;开花盛期至9月底的积温、7—9月日照时数和开花盛期至9月底的积温、7月平均最低气温,分别是影响赣州南部、北部脐橙采摘期的主要气象因子。南部和北部的模型预测的平均绝对误差分别为2.8 d和4.4 d,试报误差为0—1 d。
Abstract:
      Based on the observation data during navel orange growth period, the meteorological data from 2011 to 2017 in Longnan county of southern Ganzhou and Ningdu county in northern Ganzhou during 2008 to 2017, the key meteorological factors that affected the navel orange picking period were selected by using the relevant census methods, and stepwise regression methods were used to construct mature navel orange forecast model. The results showed that accumulated temperature, precipitation, minimum temperature and sunshine were the main meteorological factors that affected the navel orange picking period, and the accumulated temperature was the key influence factor. The accumulated temperature during the flowering period to the end of September and the sunshine hours from July to September were the main factors that impacted on southern Ganzhou. The accumulated temperature during the flowering period to the end of September and the average minimum temperature in July were the main meteorological factors affecting the navel orange picking period in northern Ganzhou. The model verification results showed that the average absolute prediction errors of navel orange picking period in the southern and northern Ganzhou were 2.8 d and 4.4 d, respectively, and the trial error was 0-1 d.
主办单位:江西省气象学会 单位地址:南昌市高新开发区艾溪湖二路323号
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