doi: 10.12013/qxyjzyj2022-032 |
“一带一路”沿线国家气象服务的供需协调度分析 |
Study on the Coordination-Degree of Supply and Demand About Meteorological Services in Countries Along the Belt and Road |
摘要点击 271 全文点击 186 投稿时间:2022-04-18 修订日期:2022-06-15 |
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基金: 国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41501555;71974100);中国气象局气象产业研究中心项目(编号:SK20210030). |
中文关键词: 气象服务,供需均衡,熵值法,协调度耦合模型,“一带一路”沿线国家 |
英文关键词: meteorological services supply and demand equilibrium entropy method coordination degree coupling model countries along the Belt and Road |
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引用:吉中会,于彦琛,于小兵.2022,“一带一路”沿线国家气象服务的供需协调度分析[J].气象与减灾研究,45(3):232-239 |
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中文摘要: |
基于2011—2020年“一带一路”沿线国家气候风险、灾损情况、经济水平,以及市场环境等方面数据资料,从气象服务供需视角,构建气象服务供需协调度指标体系,采用熵值法和协调度耦合模型量化分析沿线国家气象服务的需求、供给及供需均衡水平。结果表明,灾情指标和人口密度指标能较好地表征需求和供给水平;南亚的印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉和东南亚的菲律宾等国家的气象服务需求相对较高;供给指数相较需求指数更加稳定;均衡指数在研究期内的波动范围变化不大,但是空间分布格局变化较大;沿线印度、新加坡和孟加拉三国的均衡性上升趋势最为显著。 |
Abstract: |
From the perspective of supply and demand of the meteorological services, based on the data of climate risk, disaster damage, economic level and market environment from 2011 to 2020, the index system of supply and demand coordination of meteorological services in countries along the Belt and Road is constructed, and the demand index, supply index and supply and demand balance index of meteorological services are quantitatively analyzed by using the entropy method and the coordination degree coupling model. The results show that the disaster index and the population density index can indicate the demand and supply levels well respectively; the demand for meteorological services in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Philippines in Southeast Asia is relatively high; the supply index is more stable than the demand index; the fluctuation range of the equilibrium index in the study period is not large, but the spatial distribution pattern changes greatly; and the uptrends of the equilibrium index in India, Singapore and Bangladesh are the most significant. |