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doi:  10.12013/qxyjzyj2019-003
基于江西省雷达回波拼图的TREC方法应用及效果检验

Application and effect examination of TREC algorithm based on radar echoes mosaics in Jiangxi province
摘要点击 131  全文点击 80  投稿时间:2018-07-17  修订日期:2019-02-20
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基金:  江西省气象局青年人才培养项目“孤立回波和地物回波识别方法的改善”; 江西省重点研发计划项目(编号:20171BBG70004); 江西省气象局重点项目“基于雷达TREC风和动态分级Z—I关系的QPF研究”.
中文关键词:  雷达回波拼图,TREC,后向外推法,效果检验
英文关键词:  radar reflectivity mosaic  TREC  backward extrapolation  effect evaluation
              
作者中文名作者英文名单位
易雪婷Yi Xueting江西省气象灾害应急预警中心
傅文兵Fu Wenbing江西省气象服务中心
邹海波Zou Haibo江西省气象灾害应急预警中心
贺志明He Zhiming江西省人工影响天气领导小组办公室
李 蕾Li Lei江西省气象灾害应急预警中心,江西省气象学会秘书处
引用:易雪婷,傅文兵,邹海波,贺志明,李 蕾.2019,基于江西省雷达回波拼图的TREC方法应用及效果检验[J].气象与减灾研究,42(1):16-23
中文摘要:
      基于江西省及周边16部新一代多普勒天气雷达拼图资料,利用交叉相关跟踪法(TREC)计算江西地区雷达回波的移动矢量(TREC风),并对求解的TREC风进行异常值更正和空洞补齐等质量控制,最后利用后向外推法对江西地区2017年6月29日09:54的雷达回波进行2 h内的外推。结果表明,TREC方法能较好地获得江西地区未来2 h内的雷达回波位置和空间结构,且在0—1 h的外推回波非常接近实况。通过对2018年6月1—9日201个天气过程0—2 h外推的TS评分统计表明,基于该方法外推的2 h内的雷达回波精度都较高(TS评分>0.3),但TS评分随外推时间的增长而快速降低,当外推时间为30 min时TS评分高达0.61,外推时间增至60 min时TS评分降至0.48,外推时间延长至120 min时TS评分进一步减至0.31。
Abstract:
      Based on 16 Doppler weather radars data in Jiangxi province and surrounding area, the moving vector (TREC wind) of radar echo was calculated by TREC algorithm, and then the quality control of TREC wind was also carried out. Finally, the radar echo of Jiangxi area was extrapolated within 2 hours by using the backward extrapolation method. The result showed that the position and spatial structure of radar echo on June 29, 2017 obtained by this extrapolation method within 2 hours were relatively accurate, and the extrapolated echo within 1 hour was in good agreement with the observation. By statistically analyzing of the TS scores of radar echo extrapolation for 201 processes within 2 hours during the period of June 1-9, 2018, the extrapolated radar echoes within 2 hours presented high accuracy (TS score>0.3).However, the TS score decreased rapidly with the increase of extrapolation time. The TS score can reach 0.61 with the extrapolation time of 30 minutes, which correspondingly decreased to below 0.48 with the extrapolation time of 60 minutes, and the TS score reduced to less than 0.31 with the extrapolation time of 120 minutes.
主办单位:江西省气象学会 单位地址:南昌市高新开发区艾溪湖二路323号
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