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doi:  10.12013/qxyjzyj2019-004
1965—2017年东江中上游流域气温变化特征分析

Analysis on the temperature variation in the middle and upper reaches of the Dongjiang river during 1965-2017
摘要点击 110  全文点击 84  投稿时间:2018-11-27  修订日期:2019-03-01
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基金:  广东省河源市气象局气象科学技术研究项目(编号:201702); 广东省气象局科学技术研究项目(编号:GRMC2018Q17); 河源市社会发展科技计划项目(编号:180628100222162).
中文关键词:  气温变化,时空分布,线性趋势,突变检验,东江中上游
英文关键词:  temperature variation  spatial and temporal distribution  linear trend  mutation test  middle and upper reaches of Dongjiang
           
作者中文名作者英文名单位
曾钦文Zeng Qinwen成都信息工程大学,龙川县气象局
潘心顺Pan Xinshun龙川县气象局
魏 璐Wei Lu河源市气象局
董 彤Dong Tong抚州市气象局
引用:曾钦文,潘心顺,魏 璐,董 彤.2019,1965—2017年东江中上游流域气温变化特征分析[J].气象与减灾研究,42(1):24-31
中文摘要:
      利用东江中上游江流域8个气象站1965—2017年逐日气温资料,采用线性趋势分析、小波分析和Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法分析了东江中上游流域气温的变化特征。结果表明:1965—2017年东江中上游流域年平均气温以0.17 ℃/(10 a)速率显著上升;秋季平均气温上升最显著,冬季、夏季次之,春季不显著;年高温日数以3 526 d/(10 a)的速率显著增多。年与季平均气温和年高温日数均存在突变,各气象站年与季平均气温均大致呈自南向北依次递减分布。上游的高温日数略多于中游。各气象站年平均气温上升趋势均显著,春、夏季均以连平为中心上升幅度最大,秋季为上升趋势最明显的季节,冬季以连平为中心上升趋势最显著。各气象站年高温日数增多趋势均显著,增幅最大为连平,最小为龙川。年平均气温存在4、8—9、13—14、18—19 a的周期变化,高温日数存在2、6、10—11、25—26 a的周期变化。
Abstract:
      Based on the temperature data from 1965 to 2017 of the eight meteorological stations in the middle and upper reaches of the Dongjiang river, the temperature variation characteristics in the upper and middle reaches of the Dongjiang river were discussed using linear trend analysis, wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall mutation test. The results showed that the annual average temperature in the middle and upper reaches of Dongjiang river increased significantly with a rate of 0.17 ℃/(10 a) from 1965 to 2017; the increase of average temperature in autumn was the most significant, followed by winter and summer, but not significant in spring; the annual high temperature days increased significantly with the rate of 3 526 d/(10 a). The sudden changes occurred in annual and seasonal average temperatures and annual high temperature days. The annual and seasonal average temperatures of the meteorological stations generally decreased from south to north. The number of high temperature days in the upstream was slightly more than that of the middle reaches. The annual average temperature of each meteorological station presented a significant positive trend. The highest increase is in the spring and summer, and the most obvious season was in the autumn. The most important trend is the rising trend in the winter. The annual increase in the number of high-temperature days in each meteorological station was significant, with the largest increase appeared in Lianping and the smallest increase in Longchuan. The annual average temperature presented cycle variations of 4, 8-9, 13-14 a, and 18-19 a, and cycle variations of 2, 6, 10-11 a, and 25-26 a for the high temperature days.
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