<
doi:  10.12013/qxyjzyj2019-017
COTREC方法在江西地区的应用和检验

The application and verification of COTREC method in Jiangxi province
摘要点击 71  全文点击 41  投稿时间:2019-02-26  修订日期:2019-05-24
查看HTML全文  查看全文  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
基金:  江西省重点研发计划项目(编号:20171BBG70004);江西省气象局青年人才培养项目“基于连续方程对交叉相关分钟法的改善(COTREC)研究”,“孤立回波和地物回波识别方法的改善”
中文关键词:  雷达回波外推,COTREC,TREC,噪声
英文关键词:  radar echo extrapolation  COTREC  TREC  noise
           
作者中文名作者英文名单位
邹海波Zou Haibo江西省气象科学研究所
章毅之Zhang Yizhi江西省气象科学研究所
解震华Xie Zhenhua中国民用航空华东地区空中交通管理局 江西分局
李蕾Li Lei江西省气象学会 秘书处
引用:邹海波,章毅之,解震华,李蕾.2019,COTREC方法在江西地区的应用和检验[J].气象与减灾研究,42(2):105-112
中文摘要:
      基于江西及其周边地区的雷达组合反射率拼图,将二维Boussinesq(水平无辐散)质量连续方程约束至江西地区的TREC风场,得到改善后的TREC风场(COTREC风场),并基于COTREC风矢量开展了江西地区雷达回波的外推。个例分析表明,经过二维无辐散连续方程约束后,COTREC风中的噪声和不一致得到了显著的平滑,其风速水平梯度和风向切变都显著减小。基于COTREC风外推的雷达回波在形态上也得到了明显的改善,其外推回波中由风场的噪声或不一致引起的异常失真回波明显减少。为了进一步评估TREC和COTREC方法的外推表现,对2018年7月1—31日江西地区有明显降水的287个时次的雷达回波分别进行了1 h和2 h外推。结果表明:相对于TREC方法,COTREC方法在1 h和2 h的外推时间上均能改善外推回波的精度,其外推回波与实况的相关系数和TS评分均较TREC方法高。
Abstract:
      Based on the mosaic of radar reflectivity composite over Jiangxi and surrounding areas, the COTREC vectors were obtained by the 2D Boussinesq mass continuity equation that constrained to the TREC vectors, and then the radar echo pattern was extrapolated based on the TREC and COTREC vectors, respectively. The results of case studies (three cases) showed that the noises and inconsistencies in COTREC vectors were significantly smoothed, and the wind velocity gradient and wind shear reduced obviously. Moreover, the extrapolation based on the COTREC vectors was also improved in morphology, and the abnormal distorted echoes significantly decreased. To further verify the performance of the radar echo extrapolation, 287 radar echoes of precipitation in July 2018 were extrapolated by the TREC and COTREC methods, respectively. Results showed that the COTREC method improved the accuracy of 1 h and 2 h extrapolation, with better correlation and higher TS scores between forecast and observation than that of TREC method.
主办单位:江西省气象学会 单位地址:南昌市高新开发区艾溪湖二路323号
联系电话: (0791)82713175传真:0791-82713175 邮编:330096 Email:qxyjzyj@163.com
本系统由北京勤云科技发展有限公司设计