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doi:  10.12013/qxyjzyj2020-015
樟树市气象干旱特征及重现期分析

Analysis of meteorological drought characteristics and its recurrence period in Zhangshu
摘要点击 130  全文点击 112  投稿时间:2020-04-12  修订日期:2020-05-22
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基金:  2018年江西省气象局面上科研项目“江西省气溶胶、酸雨资料质控分析研究”
中文关键词:  干旱,重现期,历时,烈度,SPEI,樟树市
英文关键词:  drought  recurrence period  duration  intensity  SPEI  Zhangshu
              
作者中文名作者英文名单位
刘喆玥Liu Zheyue江西省气象信息中心
韩会明Han Huiming江西省水利科学研究院
赖亮Lai Liang江西省气象信息中心
杨立苑Yang Liyuan江西省气象信息中心
徐全倩Xu Quanqian江西省气象信息中心
引用:刘喆玥,韩会明,赖亮,杨立苑,徐全倩.2020,樟树市气象干旱特征及重现期分析[J].气象与减灾研究,43(2):117-122
中文摘要:
      利用樟树市1960—2018年逐月降水和气温资料,计算标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),并结合游程理论和Copula函数分析了该地区干旱特征。结果表明:樟树市干旱形势总体上趋于缓和,干旱历时和干旱烈度均呈减弱趋势,且呈现出良好的相关性;Frank-Copula函数可作为描述该地区干旱历时和干旱烈度的二维联合分布最优函数;在相同干旱历时和烈度下,“且”的重现期大于“或”的重现期,樟树市历史干旱事件的干旱历时多小于5个月,“且”的重现期小于10 a。
Abstract:
      The monthly precipitation and temperature data of Zhangshu observed from 1960 to 2018 were used to calculate the standard precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Combining with the runs theory and copula function, the drought characteristics in this area were analyzed. The results showed that the drought situation in Zhangshu tended to ease on the whole. The duration and intensity of the drought showed a negetive trend and a good correlation. The Frank-copula function can be used as an optimal function to describe the joint distribution of two variables of drought characteristics in this area. Under the same drought duration and intensity, the recurrence period of “and” was greater than that of “or”. The drought duration of historical drought events was mostly less than 5 months, and the recurrence period of “and” was less than 10 years in Zhangshu.
主办单位:江西省气象学会 单位地址:南昌市高新开发区艾溪湖二路323号
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