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doi:  10.12013/qxyjzyj2020-018
黎川县烤烟种植强降水灾害风险评估与区划

Risk assessment and zoning of heavy precipitation for flue cured tobacco planting in Lichuan county
摘要点击 121  全文点击 97  投稿时间:2020-03-10  修订日期:2020-04-19
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基金:  2020年江西省烟草专卖局科技项目“江西省烟区气候特征及适宜性区划研究”;2014年江西省气象服务中心自筹经费项目“连续强降水对江西烟叶的影响分析”
中文关键词:  灾害风险,烤烟,强降水,评估,区划
英文关键词:  disaster risk  flue cured tobacco  heavy precipitation  assessment  regionalization
           
作者中文名作者英文名单位
李煜姗Li Yushan江西省气象服务中心
王嘉琦Wang Jiaqi江西省气象服务中心
岳旭Yue Xu江西省气象服务中心
段艺萍Duan Yiping江西省气象服务中心
引用:李煜姗,王嘉琦,岳旭,段艺萍.2020,黎川县烤烟种植强降水灾害风险评估与区划[J].气象与减灾研究,43(2):137-143
中文摘要:
      强降水严重影响烤烟生长和品质形成,对烤烟种植区进行强降水灾害风险区划将有利于烤烟种植的防灾减灾。利用2006—2018年5—6月降水量、2010—2018年烤烟产量和地形资料,采用层次分析法和灾害风险指数法,对江西省黎川县烤烟种植强降水灾害风险进行评估和区划。以单日降水强度、5日累计降水强度和高程、坡度、河网密度为危险性因子,以烤烟产量为暴露性因子,以烤烟减产率为脆弱性因子,构建烤烟种植强降水灾害风险评价指标和模型。利用模型对县域各乡镇进行风险评估,并按轻风险、低风险、中风险、高风险四个等级进行风险区划。结果表明,宏村镇烤烟种植强降水灾害风险等级最高,龙安镇、社苹乡以及县域东北部的厚村乡、洵口镇、湖坊乡、熊村镇为中等风险区,县域其他地区为低风险区或轻风险区。
Abstract:
      Heavy precipitation seriously influences the growth and quality of flue cured tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.), thus, the risk zoning of heavy precipitation in tobacco planting areas is beneficial to prevent and reduce risks induced by heavy precipitation. Based on the data of daily precipitation intensity from May to June during 2006-2018, tobacco yields and terrain data during 2010-2018, the risks of heavy precipitation on tobacco planting were evaluated and regionalized in Lichuan county of Jiangxi province, using the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Disaster Risk Index methods. The 1-day and 5-day accumulative precipitation intensities, altitude, slope, river density, tobacco yield, and reduction rate of yield were used to construct the risk assessment index and model. Then, the risk of each town was assessed using this model, and the risks were regionalized as slight, low, moderate, and high level risks. Results showed that tobacco planting in Hongcun town presented the highest-level risk of heavy precipitation, Longan town, Sheping town, and the northeast region (Houcun, Xunkou, Hufang, and Xiongcun towns) of Lichuan county exhibited the moderate-level risk, most regions of Lichuan county had the low or slight-level risk.
主办单位:江西省气象学会 单位地址:南昌市高新开发区艾溪湖二路323号
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